Skate to Where Retail Capital is Going

Skate to Where Retail Capital Is Going

What ICSC 2026 Signals for Retail Property Owners and Investors

By Jim Resha, MBA, CCIM
Senior Vice President, Sperry Commercial | The Resha Group
National Chair, Sperry National Retail Group

One of the best business lessons often attributed to Wayne Gretzky is simple: skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been.

That idea feels especially relevant in retail investment real estate today.

Coming out of ICSC Las Vegas 2026, the conversation around retail felt different. For several years, retail owners and investors were forced to defend the sector. The narrative was dominated by e-commerce disruption, tenant bankruptcies, changing consumer habits, and uncertainty around brick-and-mortar retail.

That is no longer the primary story.

The better question today is not whether retail has recovered. The better question is: where is retail capital going next, and what should owners and investors do before the market fully prices it in?

At The Resha Group, our retail investment advisory work is focused on helping private owners, family offices, investors, and private equity groups make better decisions around retail property investments. The most valuable work we do is not simply providing data. It is interpreting what the data means and converting that interpretation into strategy.

The Trend Has Changed

The national retail market is being shaped by three major forces: limited new supply, selective tenant expansion, and renewed investor conviction.

First, quality retail space remains scarce. In many markets, there is not a large wave of new shopping center development. Land costs, construction costs, entitlement timelines, financing constraints, and rent feasibility have all limited new supply. That means well-located existing retail assets are becoming more valuable, especially when they sit in strong trade areas with durable tenant demand.

Second, tenant demand has become more targeted. Not every retailer is expanding aggressively, and not every shopping center is benefiting equally. But grocery, discount, off-price, restaurant, fitness, medical, wellness, service, and convenience-driven concepts continue to pursue locations that serve daily needs and high-frequency consumer behavior.

Third, capital is paying attention again. Retail is no longer being broadly dismissed as a troubled sector. Investors are recognizing that certain retail assets may offer exactly what they want: durable income, limited new competition, rent growth potential, and a strong connection to local consumer behavior.

But this is not a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats market. The difference between a strong retail asset and an average one is becoming more important, not less.

The Market Is More Selective

One of my biggest takeaways from ICSC was that confidence has returned, but discipline has returned with it.

Buyers are not simply chasing retail because the sector has momentum. They are underwriting carefully. They are looking at tenant quality, lease rollover, rent levels compared to market, operating expenses, co-tenancy, traffic counts, access, visibility, demographics, replacement cost, and the long-term relevance of the center within its trade area.

That creates a major opportunity for owners who understand how their property is positioned.

A grocery-anchored center in a supply-constrained submarket is not the same as an unanchored strip center with flat rents and deferred maintenance. A center with below-market rents and near-term rollover is not the same as one with long-term leases at today’s full market rents. A property with service-based tenancy may be viewed differently than one dependent on soft goods or more discretionary retail categories.

The market is rewarding clarity. The clearer the income story, tenant demand story, and upside story, the more competitive a sale, refinance, recapitalization, or exchange strategy can be.

What This Means for Retail Property Owners

For retail property owners, the key question is not simply, “What is my property worth today?”

The better question is: “What is the market likely to value 12 to 24 months from now, and what should I do today to position my asset accordingly?”

If your property has below-market rents, it may be worth evaluating whether near-term leasing activity can create a stronger future valuation. If you have upcoming lease expirations, the timing and structure of those renewals may materially impact buyer demand. If your tenant mix is not aligned with current expansion categories, it may be time to consider repositioning. If your asset is fully stabilized and capital demand is strong, this may be an attractive window to test the market.

The wrong move is to wait passively. In a changing market, inaction is still a decision. The owners who create the most value are usually the ones who understand the trend early and act before the market fully adjusts.

What This Means for Retail Investors

For investors, the opportunity in retail is not simply buying “retail.” That is too broad. The opportunity is identifying assets where the future income stream, tenant demand, and buyer pool are likely to improve.

That may include grocery-anchored centers, necessity-based retail, neighborhood centers in growing trade areas, assets with below-market rents, well-located centers with leasing upside, or properties that can be improved through better merchandising, management, or capital execution.

This is where local market knowledge becomes critical. National trends can tell us where the puck may be going. Local intelligence tells us which properties are actually in the path. That is especially true in markets where trade area growth, household income, supply constraints, and consumer convenience continue to shape retail demand.

That is why The Resha Group emphasizes market interpretation. Everyone has access to more data than ever before. But the value is in understanding what the data means. Is vacancy low because tenant demand is strong, or because no new space has been built? Are rents rising because tenants are expanding, or because concessions and tenant improvement costs have shifted? Is transaction volume improving because capital is more confident, or because only the best assets are trading?

Those distinctions matter.

The Advisor’s Role Has Changed

The advisor’s role today is not to report yesterday’s numbers. It is to help clients anticipate tomorrow’s opportunity.

Retail owners and investors need to understand the direction of tenant demand, capital demand, rent growth, cap rates, buyer preferences, and replacement-cost pressure. They need to know not just where the market is, but where it is going.

That is the Gretzky lesson: do not skate to where the puck is. Skate to where it is going.

For retail investment real estate, the puck appears to be moving toward well-located, necessity-based, service-oriented, supply-constrained retail assets with clear income durability and credible upside.

Owners who recognize that shift can make better decisions around leasing, refinancing, repositioning, holding, selling, or exchanging. Investors who recognize that shift can pursue opportunities before they become obvious to everyone else.

Retail has changed. But that change has created opportunity. The key is knowing how to interpret it — and acting before the market fully prices it in.

The Resha Group at Sperry Commercial

Retail Investment Advisory

Market data is available to everyone. Interpretation is where value is created.

Source Note

Industry themes are directionally supported by ICSC Las Vegas 2026 event positioning, CBRE’s 2026 U.S. Retail Outlook and Q1 2026 U.S. Retail Figures, and CoStar’s 2026 U.S. Retail Update. ICSC describes Las Vegas 2026 as a national commercial real estate event with more than 25,000 decision-makers focused on dealmaking, networking, and retail real estate innovation. CBRE identifies grocery-anchored centers, neighborhood and strip centers, and high-income suburban corridors as retail formats positioned to outperform, while CoStar reported that U.S. retail available space and investable inventory remained scarce into 2026.